Nội dung text Charting and Technical Analysis (Fred McAllen)_.pdf
Introduction Every investing mistake is a result of one thing. Either the wrong investment was purchased, or the investment was purchased at the wrong time. Historically, in good market times most every investment advances with the market. Even purchasing a bad investment during a strong bull market can sometimes be profitable. Yet during market declines, and especially in bear markets, the opposite holds true. During bad market times more than 80% of all stocks and funds decline in value. Therefore, purchasing any investment at the wrong time is most always the recipe for loss. Prior to every market decline, and particularly leading up to the last two bear markets in 2000 and 2007, unsuspecting and uninformed investors were continually sold investments that would certainly hand them a loss. Unfortunately, this is always a reoccurring tragedy. Since 1900 there has been a bear market on the average of every 3.5 years with an average decline of 29%. Investing and trading can be profitable for the informed investor, but very costly for the uninformed. One of the inspirations that led to writing this book came from a good friend with whom I had shared some of the techniques and strategies used in technical market analysis. He later sent me the following message. “Before I learned technical analysis, I was happy in my ignorance. I was not very profitable... but happy. But after learning the predictive value of charting, I could never feel safe in the market again without charts. It would be like driving cross-country without a road map. Charts really can tell you where to buy or sell and they have saved me from losses more times than I can count.”