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PHARMD GURU Page 1 INTRODUCTION: Risk is the likelihood or the probability of experiencing some type of harm, or losing something that one values. Risk factors are variables or characteristics (biological -genetic disorder/ageing, environmental-air/water pollution/ passive smoking or psychosocial- workload/deadlines) associated with an individual that make it more likely that he or she, as opposed to another person randomly selected from the population, will develop a problem. RISK FACTORS: Exists before a disorder or problem. Maybe time — limited or may continue over time. Can derive from the individual, the family, the community, institutions or the general environment; and Can play a causal role or be a marker for a problem (BRAC). CHARACTERISTICS OF RISKS: 1. RISK IS NOT CERTAIN. Risk is based on probability. Therefore, not everyone who is exposed to a risk condition or factor will have an adverse outcome. Risk factors are "linked to" and "associated with" negative outcomes. E.g. psychosocial outcomes v/s biological outcomes. Teratogenic drug - thalidomide, environmental toxin – lead. 2. RISK IS A RELATIVE CONCEPT. Risk factors range from those that are only markers to minimally harmful situations to those that are markers to life - threatening situations. (Social continuum of risk/personal risk continuum). Risk is not a neutral concept. It involves determining what acceptable or unacceptable consequences. Risk factors work together over time to influence the likelihood of a negative outcome. PHARMACOEPIDEMIOLOGY & RISK MANAGEMENT
PHARMD GURU Page 2 The longer the exposure to risk factors, the greater the likelihood the health problem will occur. Risk Identification - Exist as a social context. The identification of risk will be partially based upon their values, biases, experience and knowledge. FLOW OF RISK IN EPIDEMIOLOGY: RISK PURSUED AS OPPORTUNITY RELUCTANTLY ASSUMED RISK RISK FOR WHICH NO CHOICE FREELY ACCEPTED RISK FIGURE 1: PERSONAL RISK CONTINUUM TRUE RISK STATISTICAL CONSIDERATION (Sampling, models etc) MEASURED ESTIMATED RISK PHARMACOEPIDEMIOLOGICAL CONSIDERATION (Bias,Confounding etc)