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Private & Confidential July 2025 Vietnam Mid-Year Strategy 2025 Tariff Concerns Behind A NewChapter Unfolds
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MACRO 2 Vietnam H1 Macro Update 3 Macro Case Scenarios 1 Global Marco Recap 3 Private & Confidential 4 Market Highlights
PART I: GLOBAL MARCO UPDATES A Turbulent First Half of 2025 Under Trump’s Second Term 4 1. Trump’s “Liberation Day” Tariffs Trigger Global Trade Turmoil: The U.S. imposed sweeping tariffs of up to 49% announced on April 2, sparking retaliation from China. Tariffs created major distortions in trade flows, spurred panic frontloading of imports, and weighed on global growth forecasts. Global GDP growth forecasts were revised down from 3.1% to 2.3%. 2. U.S. Economy Stumbles into Contraction: U.S. real GDP contracted 0.5% annualized in Q1 2025, its first quarterly decline in nearly three years, driven by weak consumer spending and record import drag (+41.3% annualized in Q1 2025). Inflation pressures remained elevated, with the U.S. core PCE price index rising 3.9% YoY in May, driven largely by tariff-induced cost increases (BEA). 3. Historic Dollar Decline & Market Shifts: The U.S. dollar posted its sharpest first-half decline since the 1970s, dropping nearly 10% against a basket of major currencies as of June 30, 2025 (-11.9% vs. Euro, -9.8% vs. Pound, -1.9% vs Yuan). Gold prices surged 25%, reaching over USD 2,750/oz, while global equities, including S&P 500, Nikkei 225, and DAX, broke to record levels. 4. BRICS Expansion and China’s Growth Hold Steady Despite Trade Pressures: China’s economy grew by 5.4% YoY in Q1 2025, yet weak demand due to sluggish property market (Resale home prices dropped ~7.3% YoY in June) , tariffs, and oversupply, causing persistent deflationary pressures, could heighten economic risks. 5. Middle East Tensions & Oil Market Pressure: Escalating conflict between Iran and Israel briefly spiked oil prices. Yet markets largely smoothed out, with oil hovering around USD 70/barrel. Safe-haven flows favored commodities over U.S. Treasuries and selected EMs, signaling shifting asset preferences. Private & Confidential Source:Reuters, OCED,SBBS Research