Title Decision Making.pdf ✅

9/28/25 2 Decisio3 Makin4 Phase7 There is no set order – overlaps, skip task, differential order “What am I trying to accomplish?” : Decision maker takes stock of plans for the future, principles and values, and priorities. Options and their consequence – short/long- term ? Effect? Close/open doors? ; Criteria to consider when making a choice Decision structuring: Organizing and managing the info about the options Selecting from the options; making a decision as to when to stop information gathering; deciding which info is more reliable/relevant Evaluating : Reflecting on the process and identifying aspects that could be improved B 3 Cognitiv: Illusion7 i3 Decisio3 Makin4 Biases exist in the way in which people gather and assess the relevance of information The biases are justifiable ways of thinking under most conditions but lead to errors when misapplied. These systematic biases are known as cognitive illusions Cognitive illusion only if there is a “correct” way of answering a question or making a decision, there is also an intuitive estimate or decision, and there is a discrepancy between the two that always goes in the same direction. (Von Winterfeldt and Edwards, 1986) Galotti • Representativeness Heuristic • Availability Heuristic • Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic • Framing effect • Hindsight bias C 4
9/28/25 3 If you were to toss a coin 6 times, which one would people say seems like the more likely outcome T H H T H T or H H H T T T A sample is judged as representative if it is similar to the population from which it was drawn in important characteristics. The more “random looking” pattern is judged as more representative as people believe that a “random process should produce a ”random looking” outcome. The results need to look representative of the process that generated them. 5 Representativeness Heuristic A mental shortcut where people classify something based on how similar it is to a typical case It is so pervasive that sometimes we ignore important statistical information that we should consider. 1 If it looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck....then it probably is a duck 6